F1 DRIVER MOVE RANKINGS: WHAT ARE THE NEXT FIVE MOST LIKELY SIGNINGS?

It’s summer in the F1 calendar, and that naturally brings about contract ‘silly season’ as drivers and teams contemplate their next moves.

Even though most of the grid is contractually locked for 2026 already, there are still rumours flying around about what may change – and we’ve ranked some of these rumours in order of potential likelihood.

F1 driver rumours ranked: What are the next moves likely to happen?

1: Arvid Lindblad to be promoted to Formula 1

Red Bull junior Arvid Lindblad was recently handed an exemption from the FIA to allow him to gain his Super Licence before his 18th birthday, and that was put to good use at Silverstone as he took in his FP1 debut at Red Bull.

The 17-year-old is highly rated by senior advisor Helmut Marko, and with all bar Max Verstappen (more on him later) thought to be out of contract at Red Bull and Racing Bulls next season as it stands, it is thought the teenager is being prepared for a potential Formula 1 promotion for 2026.

As the ‘junior’ squad, Racing Bulls would be his most likely destination, with Yuki Tsunoda and Isack Hadjar potentially set to be evaluated over a Red Bull seat, after Liam Lawson’s short stint earlier this season.

There is no confirmation yet as to how each team will be set up for next year, but given Lindblad’s rate of progress, a recent TPC outing for Racing Bulls and gathering of Formula 1 experience, it is likely he is being looked at for a potential race seat in 2026.

More on the F1 2026 driver market as it stands

👉 F1 2026 driver line-up: Which drivers are already confirmed for 2026?

👉 F1 driver contracts: What is the current contract status of every driver on the 2025 grid?

2: Valtteri Bottas to Alpine, or Cadillac

Valtteri Bottas has made sure his presence has been felt around the Formula 1 paddock in his reserve role with Mercedes this year, with the Finn set on looking to return to the grid in 2026.

Cadillac had been touted as a potential destination for him, with two extra seats joining the field next season, but Alpine has also emerged as a potential destination for the 10-time Grand Prix winner.

Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff confirmed conversations had taken place with Alpine about a potential move, “a few times, actually”, and he would not stand in his way if a race seat emerges.

“It seems that the interest in Valtteri is increasing even more,” he added.

“He deserves that seat. If someone grabs him as a race driver, we’ll let him go. Of course, with a tear in the corner of our eye.”

Alpine will be Mercedes customers for power units next season, though current seat-holder Franco Colapinto is understood to be in a position where he will have more time to show his credentials alongside Pierre Gasly this season.

3: Max Verstappen to Mercedes

It is well-known that Verstappen has a long-term contract with Red Bull until the end of the 2028 season, but it is thought that a provision exists for him to exit his deal early if he is outside the top four places in the Drivers’ Championship come the summer break.

That position will be unlikely for the reigning World Champion, given the 46-point gap he holds to Charles Leclerc in that position, but while Mercedes has kept its counsel on the situation, insisting any business will be conducted in private, it was George Russell who put the situation out in the open last month by saying it was “normal” that conversations with the likes of the Dutch driver were “ongoing.”

Wolff confirmed the team would look at the summer break as the point upon which it would decide its driver line-up for next year, and the team principal has reiterated they already have a “perfect” duo in Russell and Kimi Antonelli.

He said: “The situation we have with Kimi [Antonelli] and George, we have a perfect line-up that we very much enjoy, that we believe is the future.

“But at the same time, there is a four-time World Champion that needs to decide what he’s going to do in the future, and that is just, as a team principal, you need to see where that is going.

“But I think I give it a very little probability that this is going to happen.”

However, until both drivers have signed upon the dotted line, rumours of a potential Verstappen switch are likely to persist.

4: Sergio Perez to Cadillac

Like Bottas, Sergio Perez is thought to be looking for a way back onto the grid next season, and Cadillac would be his most likely destination if so.

It is known that Cadillac is looking to hire at least one experienced driver as the American brand arrives on the grid in 2026, and while the team has put together a list of drivers with which to negotiate, Perez is believed to be one of the names on it.

His cause would likely be helped if Bottas were to switch to Alpine, as Zhou Guanyu’s name has also been mentioned in the context of a Cadillac seat.

Given the value of the Chinese market to Cadillac – with the brand selling more cars there than in the United States – alongside Zhou’s managerial connection to team principal Graeme Lowdon, he may be a viable candidate for one of the seats.

On top of that, Zhou is currently reserve driver at Ferrari, adding another connection to the team as Cadillac is set to use customer Ferrari power units until their own engine is produced, due to be in time for the 2028 season.

5: Paul Aron to an Alpine race seat

More likely to be a long shot than others on this list, but Alpine reserve Paul Aron is set to have several opportunities to show his pace in a Formula 1 car this season.

Along with three FP1 sessions at Alpine, the team also agreed a loan deal with Sauber to run him in FP1 at two races this season, having done so at Silverstone over the weekend.

Much like Oliver Bearman at Haas last year, when he had six FP1 sessions to prepare for Formula 1, this extended running will offer the Estonian the chance to show his potential and potentially leave a direct comparison with Colapinto at Alpine, with Pierre Gasly under contract until at least the end of 2026.

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2025-07-08T11:21:50Z